The Houston Rockets ended the 24-25 regular season comfortably as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a 52-30 record. This was an 11-win improvement over the 2024-25 season and a 31-win improvement over the 2023-24 season. With this trend of major yearly progression, the Rockets were set for a big 2025-26 season, especially with newly acquired superstar and future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant and another year of development for the team’s young stars, however it has not gone as expected.
The season started on the wrong foot when former All-Star starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL in September. VanVleet, who had been a critical piece to the Rockets’ 2024-25 success, was the team’s primary ball handler and someone trusted to elevate the play of others. In the 2023 offseason, the Rockets chose to give Vanvleet a three-year contract worth an average of $42.8 million per year, while his expected market value was only around $15 million to $22 million. This highlighted Houston’s belief in VanVleet as a cornerstone and a guy with value derived from his ability to help connect the scattered pieces from the 22-win team he inherited.
Amidst the loss of Houston’s lead facilitator, there was lots of pressure under Head Coach Ime Udoka to find a solution to comply with the fanbase’s expectations to improve the following year. With salary cap rules restricting Houston’s flexibility in the trade market, the coaching staff and management were left under pressure to find an in-house solution. While second-year guard Reed Sheppard has stepped up and made a large impact, especially as of late, expecting a 21-year-old with one year of experience under his belt to fill in for a 32-year-old former NBA champion simply isn’t feasible. Before the season, Udoka stated that the ball-handling role would be handled by a committee largely made up of Sheppard, Durant, and Amen Thompson, but this has only led to a teamwide turnover surplus. Durant has 25 games with four or more turnovers and a team average of 14.4, which ranks No. 22 in the NBA; a 12-spot decrease from last year’s team. Combine the turnovers with the 27th most three-point attempts per game and a lower quantity of total assists compared to the rest of the league, and the offense simply doesn’t have the expected fluidity many thought it would. Lots of the offense is centered around getting Durant the ball and figuring it out from there, which can work to an extent, but when other guys are forced to step up because he’s out of the game or being double-teamed, there simply hasn’t been an answer through 84 games.
The Rockets’ turnaround last year was in part due to the team’s young players stepping up, but the major growth was driven by the grit of veterans Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Steven Adams. VanVleet’s value lies in his importance as a stabilizer, helping with offensive organization and overall leadership, but he also has a reputation as one of the toughest defensive guards in the NBA. Similarly, Brooks averaged 14 points per game on good efficiency last season, but is also known as one of the more pesky defenders in the NBA, consistently guarding the opponent’s best player. Lastly, Adams is widely viewed as the NBA’s best rebounder and strongest player, ranking second in the league in rebounds per minute.
The problem is, none of these key pieces will be playing this year’s postseason in a Rockets uniform. Adams went down with an ankle injury in the Rockets’ Jan. 18th matchup against the Pelicans, Brooks is now a member of the Phoenix Suns, and VanVleet suffered one of the more brutal injuries in sports. “Losing those three players hurt them from a toughness standpoint,” Bradeaux, a prominent Rockets-based social media creator, mentioned in relation to the key absences and how they have impacted General Manager Rafael Stone and Udoka’s vision of this roster. From the beginning of his time in Houston, Udoka has emphasized culture, prioritizing how well players can fit his image of a championship team over talent. While these values have translated to wins, it may also be holding the team back from being much better, due to the redundancy of their depth. Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Jae’Sean Tate, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Aaron Holiday are each defensive-oriented players who are better without the ball in their hands. These similar skillsets, combined with two injured players, 39-year-old Jeff Green and newly signed JD Davison, who doesn’t get minutes, and Clint Capela, who won’t create his own offense, now make up for 62% of the active roster. That means eight out of the 13 active players are viewed as negative offensive players, with the top options, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, being poor three-point shooters.
From the outside looking in, the Rockets didn’t have a bad season. The team finished with the same record as last season under poor circumstances and with two all-stars, but the inconsistency and lack of improvement have simply riled up the fanbase to the point where there is little hope this season will be a productive one. According to Polymarket’s odds, the Lakers had a 14.5% chance to beat the Rockets on April 17th before the series, but those odds went up to 94% after LA took a 3-0 lead. Even if the Rockets could pull off a 3-0 comeback, which has never been done before, awaiting them in round two would be last year’s NBA champion and the team with the best record in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder, whom they have a 1-2 record against during the regular season.
Overall, there is still optimism for this group. Younger players like Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard will return next year with more valuable playoff experience under their belt. Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet also missed most of the year, and the team still managed to finish with a solid record under the circumstances. With a high second-round draft pick, two very good trade pieces with Brooklyn and Phoenix’s first-round picks next year, along with a tradeable contract with Dorian Finney-Smith, Houston has the chance to improve the roster significantly for next season in hopes of completing this process.
